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41.
Preparedness to adapt to the impacts of climate change was assessed for three important sectors of activity within the Irish coastal and marine environment, namely tourism, fisheries, and conservation of biodiversity. Information on the current status of each sector is a valuable point of reference in terms of accessing contribution to the implementation of future national adaptation efforts. A modified version of the National Adaptive Capacity (NAC) framework developed by the World Resources Institute was used to assess the three sectors of activity. This framework is structured around five functions: assessment, prioritisation, coordination, information management, and climate risk reduction; results of the assessment suggest that all three sectors are at the nascent stages of the climate change adaptation process. Currently there is no dedicated national policy guidance or legal support mechanism on adaptation in Ireland; hence there is no national financial commitment to support implementation of adaptation actions for any of the sectors assessed. Subjecting these three selected sectors of activity to such an assessment enables identification of existing actions that can potentially support current adaptation, as well as where issues such as knowledge gaps and lack of policy support hinder progress. 相似文献
42.
J. Luterbacher S. J. Koenig J. Franke G. van der Schrier E. Zorita A. Moberg J. Jacobeit P. M. Della-Marta M. Küttel E. Xoplaki D. Wheeler T. Rutishauser M. Stössel H. Wanner R. Brázdil P. Dobrovolný D. Camuffo C. Bertolin A. van Engelen F. J. Gonzalez-Rouco R. Wilson C. Pfister D. Limanówka Ø. Nordli L. Leijonhufvud J. Söderberg R. Allan M. Barriendos Rüdiger Glaser D. Riemann Z. Hao C. S. Zerefos 《Climatic change》2010,101(1-2):201-234
We use long instrumental temperature series together with available field reconstructions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and three-dimensional climate model simulations to analyze relations between temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns over much of Europe and the Mediterranean for the late winter/early spring (January–April, JFMA) season. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) investigates interannual to interdecadal covariability between a new gridded SLP field reconstruction and seven long instrumental temperature series covering the past 250 years. We then present and discuss prominent atmospheric circulation patterns related to anomalous warm and cold JFMA conditions within different European areas spanning the period 1760–2007. Next, using a data assimilation technique, we link gridded SLP data with a climate model (EC-Bilt-Clio) for a better dynamical understanding of the relationship between large scale circulation and European climate. We thus present an alternative approach to reconstruct climate for the pre-instrumental period based on the assimilated model simulations. Furthermore, we present an independent method to extend the dynamic circulation analysis for anomalously cold European JFMA conditions back to the sixteenth century. To this end, we use documentary records that are spatially representative for the long instrumental records and derive, through modern analogs, large-scale SLP, surface temperature and precipitation fields. The skill of the analog method is tested in the virtual world of two three-dimensional climate simulations (ECHO-G and HadCM3). This endeavor offers new possibilities to both constrain climate model into a reconstruction mode (through the assimilation approach) and to better asses documentary data in a quantitative way. 相似文献
43.
Petr Dobrovolný Anders Moberg Rudolf Brázdil Christian Pfister Rüdiger Glaser Rob Wilson Aryan van Engelen Danuta Limanówka Andrea Kiss Monika Halíčková Jarmila Macková Dirk Riemann Jürg Luterbacher Reinhard Böhm 《Climatic change》2010,101(1-2):69-107
Monthly temperature series for Central Europe back to AD 1500 are developed from documentary index series from Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic (1500–1854) and 11 instrumental temperature records (1760–2007). Documentary evidence from the Low Countries, the Carpathian Basin and Poland are used for cross-checking for earlier centuries. The instrumental station records are corrected for inhomogeneities, including insufficient radiation protection of early thermometers and the urban heat island effect. For overlapping period (1760–1854), the documentary data series correlate with instrumental temperatures, most strongly in winter (86% explained variance in January) and least in autumn (56% in September). For annual average temperatures, 81% of the variance is explained. Verification statistics indicate high reconstruction skill for most months and seasons. The last 20 years (since 1988) stand out as very likely the warmest 20-year period, accounting for the calibration uncertainty and decreases in proxy data quality before the calibration period. The new reconstruction displays a previously unobserved long-term decrease in DJF, MAM and JJA temperature variability over last five centuries. Compiled monthly, seasonal and annual series can be used to improve the robustness of gridded large-scale European temperature reconstructions and possible impact studies. Further improvement of the reconstruction would be achieved if documentary data from other European countries are further developed. 相似文献
44.
Measurements of the hydroxyl rotational temperatures at about 87 km altitude above Wuppertal (51.3°N, 7.2°E), Germany, are analysed. The time series covers the time interval from 1987 until 2005 and consists of more than 4000 night mean temperature data. Seasonal and longer-term trends are removed from the data set and OH* temperature fluctuations on temporal scales of about 3–40 days are derived. Various spectral analysis techniques (harmonic analysis, maximum entropy method and wavelet transform) are applied. Can – due to the Sun's rotation – the irregular pattern of sunspots on the solar disc lead to OH* temperature fluctuations? Pronounced spectral components in the OH* temperature fluctuations around a period from 27 to 31 days are frequently observed. We tentatively attribute these signatures to the differential rotation of the Sun: Sun's equatorial regions rotate faster (taking only about 27 days) than the polar regions. Sunspots occur at heliographic latitudes at about ±40°, which correspond to a rotation rate of about 27–31 days. The OH* temperature fluctuations within this period range show a long-term modulation of 11 years. Thus, tracking the spectral intensity of the 27- to 31-day component should allow the indirect monitoring of the solar sunspot cycle. 相似文献
45.
Oliver Wetter Christian Pfister Johannes P. Werner Eduardo Zorita Sebastian Wagner Sonia I. Seneviratne Jürgen Herget Uwe Grünewald Jürg Luterbacher Maria-Joao Alcoforado Mariano Barriendos Ursula Bieber Rudolf Brázdil Karl H. Burmeister Chantal Camenisch Antonio Contino Petr Dobrovolný Rüdiger Glaser Iso Himmelsbach Andrea Kiss Oldřich Kotyza Thomas Labbé Danuta Limanówka Laurent Litzenburger Øyvind Nordl Kathleen Pribyl Dag Retsö Dirk Riemann Christian Rohr Werner Siegfried Johan Söderberg Jean-Laurent Spring 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):349-363
The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models. 相似文献
46.
Oliver Wetter Christian Pfister Johannes P. Werner Eduardo Zorita Sebastian Wagner Sonia I. Seneviratne Jürgen Herget Uwe Grünewald Jürg Luterbacher Maria-Joao Alcoforado Mariano Barriendos Ursula Bieber Rudolf Brázdil Karl H. Burmeister Chantal Camenisch Antonio Contino Petr Dobrovolný Rüdiger Glaser Iso Himmelsbach Andrea Kiss Oldřich Kotyza Thomas Labbé Danuta Limanówka Laurent Litzenburger Øyvind Nordli Kathleen Pribyl Dag Retsö Dirk Riemann Christian Rohr Werner Siegfried Johan Söderberg Jean-Laurent Spring 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):365-367